We started the new year reflecting about the year that just passed by. A lot of things happened! A lot has changed! But the one thing that has not changed is the undying spirit of humanity. We are still fighters! Even if the enemy is invisible 😊
In this edition of the Sunday Weekly, we take a look back at the year just passed by and make predictions for what could be in store in 2021.
IN TODAY'S NEWSLETTER
A look back at 2020
Our predictions for 2021
A LOOK BACK AT 2020
On the 22nd of January 2020, Tesla hit a milestone - It achieved market capitalisation of $100Bn. It was a big deal! Fast forward to now, its market cap is around $670Bn!
On the 30th of January 2020, India identified its first COVID-19 patient in Kerala. Fast forward to now, over 1 Crore (10 Million) people have tested positive for the virus in India alone!
At the beginning of the year, Zoom had 10 Million users. Fast forward to now, the video-conferencing platform has over 300 Million users!
It was a year of super-superlatives, a case-study of sorts for the future. And it deserves careful study. Here is a collection of most major developments that happened in 2020.
Predicting the future is such a dangerous business. Every single person who predicted the year 2020, got it entirely wrong. It is easy however to look at all those egregious (outstandingly bad) predictions and mock at them. But the reality is this.
Nobody has a crystal ball to see through the future. Shockingly, not even us!
As the guy who made a lot of money selling bumper stickers in the movie Forrest Gump would say, “(Sh)It happens”.
Why then do we try to predict the future? An article published by Psychology Today 10 years ago suggests that one of the most powerful influences on fear is uncertainty. The less we know, the more threatened we feel. Lack of knowledge means we don’t know what we need to know to protect ourselves. This is bad for us. Our psychological need to feel in control consequently takes over and exhibits a characteristic called ‘Futurism’ where we predict what will happen in the future to deal with the uncertainty associated with the lack of knowledge.
More importantly, predicting the future enables us to devise a plan of action. For instance, our predictions for the year 2021 help us develop an investment plan. Of course, things will change, and our portfolio will have to evolve. But that is for us to worry about in the future. Not now!
Enough of faff, here is what are expecting will happen in 2021!
Interest rates in India will go further down
The NIFTY banking index will be the worst performer in 2021
The USD will depreciate against most currencies, specifically against the AUD
Crypto currencies will have another fab year
Electric motorcycles are going to be the big thing this year
Demand and price of copper will increase significantly
Amongst major economies, equity returns will be the highest in China
Real estate price appreciation in India will finally start recovering
Forget value or cyclical stocks. Momentum and Tech investing will continue to be where the action is.
The western countries and Japan will witness inflation, finally!
Hit the link below to read the full list and a detailed analysis of why we have made these predictions.
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